| The Zero Date |
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| by Peter Meyer Written 1999, slightly modified 2006 |
Despite the fact that the mathematics of the timewave (at least, the mathematics of the construction of the fractal object from the 384 numbers) is rigorously logical there are several criticisms which can be made of Novelty Theory as a theory of time and history, especially regarding the flexibility of the theory in relating the timewave to historical data.
The timewave (which associates points in time with a quality called "novelty", and more-or-less taken to mean what this word normally means) is mathematically defined for any point in time in the past, but eventually descends, irregularly and in a fractal manner, to a zero value. After reaching zero, the timewave ceases to exist, or rather, no novelty value is defined for points in time (if there are any) after the point — the so-called "zero point" — at which the timewave reaches zero.
The formal mathematical component of Timewave Theory does not imply any particular date as the zero date. The timewave is anchored to historical time by associating the zero point with some point in time. The standard zero point, advocated by Terence McKenna is 6 a.m. (Colombian time) on 2012-12-21 (December 21, 2012 — changed from December 22, 2012 around 1991). However, the timewave could be anchored to any other date and time, and the formal theory would remain unaffected, only its interpretation, when considered in the light of the historical data, would change. If the zero date is 2012-12-21, then (assuming the original set of 384 numbers) a large "descent into novelty" should have occurred during March 1996, whereas if the zero date is, say, 2032-12-21 then this descent should occur during March 2016, together, it is claimed, with all the novelty, revelation and unexpected things that are supposed to be associated with descents of the timewave.
Whatever number set is chosen as the basis for the timewave, the choice of the date and time for the zero point is crucial in relating the theory to the historical data (data which is required either to confirm or to refute it).
The standard zero date, 2012-12-21, has by now achieved a sort of fame as the predicted date of the Eschaton (a concept of Christian origin and meaning "the last, or final, thing", after which there is no more, or at least beyond which Earthly time ceases and, perhaps, a state ensues which transcends time as we know it).
How the date for the Eschaton was arrived at by Terence McKenna, building upon the revelations of the Oversoul of the Species, is described below. Unfortunately there seems to be a flaw in the initial reasoning concerning the identification of this zero date.
Prior to 1990 McKenna had always stated that the zero date was 2012-12-22, not the date of 2012-12-21 which is now often used as the zero date. The approach he originally took to determining the zero date was to look for an event of great novelty in recent history, and to take this as the start of the final 67.29-year (24,576-day) cycle. The use of a uranium bomb to kill 80,000 civilians on 1945-08-06 seemed to him the most likely candidate for such an event. Adding 67.29 years to the date of the incineration of Hiroshima brings one to mid-November 2012. Influenced by the fact that the current 13-baktun cycle of the Maya Calendar ends in December 2012 McKenna adopted 2012-12-22 as the zero date.
Further studies clarified the question of the end date of the Maya Calendar: most Maya scholars accept 2012-12-21 but there are still some that argue for 2012-12-23 or another date. The fact that the winter solstice in 2012 occurs at 11:18 a.m. GMT on 2012-12-21 (approximately dawn on the 21st of December at La Chorrera) further pointed to this date. (As to the connection between the winter solstice date and the Maya Calendar see John Major Jenkins' article The How and Why of the Mayan End Date in 2012 A.D.)
It is part of the theory of the Timewave, which is based upon the I Ching, that one day corresponds to one line in a hexagram. A hexagram then corresponds to 6 days, and the sequence of 64 hexagrams to 6*64 = 384 days. Longer "cycles" are formed by successive multiplication by 64, thus:
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64*384 days = 24,576 days = 67.29 years 64*24,576 days = 1,572,864 days = 4,306.36 years 64*1,572,864 days = 100,663,296 days = 275,606.74 years and so on. |
One need not quibble with the assumption of larger "cycles" formed by successive multiplication by 64 (presumably proceeding from the fact that there are 64 possible hexagrams — though the question of why the multiplicator should not be, say, 60, or 32, has not been addressed). But McKenna then hypothesized that the beginning and end points of these "cycles" must be marked in historical time by exceptionally novel events — and that by identifying one of these novel events one could arrive at the zero point, or at least, at a likely candidate (which would then have to be checked as to how well the timewave implied by it corresponded to observable historical novelty), by adding the number of days in one of these cycles, say, the 67.29-year cycle, to the date of the novel event. McKenna chose Hiroshima (the first use of an atomic bomb against a civilian population) for his 'exceptionally novel' event. After some adjustment (described above), a zero date of 2012-12-21 was settled upon.
The problem is that when one uses the zero date thus obtained, the Timewave shows different features at 24,576 days before the zero date depending on which set of 384 numbers is used. If we use the original ("Kelley" set) we obtain the following graph for the date 24,576 days before the zero date:
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However at this point we should note that, according to currently orthodox Novelty Theory, the timewave which was based on the original 384 numbers (and thus the timewave given in the graphs above) is "erroneous". There are now rival claimants for the title of "the real, true 384 numbers", including:
- The original 384 numbers as given in Appendix II of the 1975 edition of The Invisible Landscape.
- The slightly different set of numbers resulting from omission of the "half-twist" from the construction on the basis of the King Wen Sequence.
- The Sheliak numbers, obtained from John Sheliak's mathematical work.
- The Huang Ti numbers, resulting from applying the original construction (but without the half-twist) to the Huang Ti Sequence of hexagrams.
When we look at the date 24,576 days before the zero date using these alternate sets of 384 numbers we obtain:
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It is part of the Timewave theory Zero that descents of the timewave (particularly the beginnings and ends of descents) are associated with "novelty" (or, in the view of some, "revelation") whereas ascents are associated with lack of "novelty", or habit and routine.
When we look at the standard timewave (with zero date of 2012-12-21) we find that at 24,576 days before the zero date there is nothing like a descent in the case of the Kelley, Watkins and Sheliak numbers, but only with the Huang Ti numbers. Indeed, for the timewaves generated by the first three numbers sets this point on the graph is the beginning of an ascent lasting several years, which in fact persists, with small descents, for a couple of decades. But in the case of the Huang Ti numbers, the date 24,576 days before the zero date occurs right in the middle of a major descent.
Thus, if we use any of the Kelly, Watkins and Sheliak number sets, the assumption that the beginning of a "cycle" (in this case, one of 24,576 days) is marked by an exceptionally novel event leads to a timewave which indicates that nothing exceptionally novel is to be expected at the beginning of that cycle, a contradiction. This is true independently of the particular zero date chosen.
But in the case of the Huang Ti numbers, the assumption is not contradicted, and in fact the timewave generated by the Huang Ti numbers shows that the start of the final 24,576-day cycle does in fact occur with indication of great novelty.
But this line of reasoning is subject to the objection: What is the justification for the choice of the Hiroshima incineration as the date to mark the start of the final 24,576-day cycle? There were plenty of other dates in the 20th century which would qualify as extremely novel, or as events with extremely novel consequences. For example, 1939-09-01, the day that Nazi Germany invaded Poland, triggering World War II. Or, for Americans, 1941-12-07, the day Pearl Harbor was attacked. Or 1963-11-22, the date of the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Clearly there are many candidates for such an event, so there is no certainty, or even likelihood, that the Hiroshima atomic bomb is the event which is sought.
Is there another plausible candidate? Since some zero date must be selected in order to anchor the timewave to historical time, the absence of any plausible candidate for a zero date would preclude any possible empirical test of it.
Actually, as noted above, the initial reasoning was basically discarded in favor of the hypothesis that the zero date corresponds with the end of the Maya calendar (or more precisely, with the day following the final day in the great cycle of 13 baktuns in the Maya calendar). What support is there for this hypothesis? Only the assumption that, since the Maya had an advanced calendrical system, spanning thousands of years (and perhaps were in touch with a cosmic wisdom), they must have known when time would come to an end, and arranged their long count calendar to end on that date (or more exactly, on the day before). However, as John Major Jenkins has pointed out in The How and Why of the Mayan End Date in 2012 A.D., the choice of 2012-12-21 for the end of the Maya calendar can be explained without any reference to the theory of time expressed by Timewave Zero, and (presumably) for the Maya this was not the end of time but only the end of a great cycle.
There are other approaches to finding a defensible zero date. One might identify the "most significant" point of descent in the timewave in, say, the 300 or 400 years preceding the zero point, then look for the "most novel" event in the last few centuries, and correlate the two, thus giving us a zero point. But again, there is potential for endless debate as to which event was the "most novel".
Whatever zero date is chosen, it has to be confirmed by showing that in fact the resulting timewave does accord with the ups and downs of history (including events such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union). Terence McKenna claimed that the 2012-12-21 wave is so confirmed, but this claim is dubious. A serious investigation would first quantify historically novel events then test multiple zero dates to see which gives the best fit with the historical data. Unfortunately, due to the vagueness of the concept of "novelty" in Timewave theory, it is unlikely that any experiment could be devised which could test the theory in a scientific way (in which case perhaps the theory is irrefutable, but also says nothing despite appearing to, and is thus at best pseudo-science).
However, it is tempting to test the various number sets and zero dates by checking them against the historical record, however unscientific this may be. Consider, for example, the assassination of John F. Kennedy, surely one of the most "novel" events of the 20th Century. Unfortunately for the theory, none of the Kelly, Watkins, Sheliak or Huang Ti number sets shows this event to occur during a descent, but rather with all four it occurs during an ascent:
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Thus defenders of Novelty Theory must accept at least one of the following:
- The assassination of J. F. Kennedy was not an event likely to occur during a descent of the timewave.
- December 21, 2012, is not the correct zero date.
- None of the four number sets is correct.
- Some other aspect of the theory is erroneous.
| The Mathematics of Timewave Zero | The Maya Calendar |
| History of the Software | Fractal Time Software |